Population

If you place yeast in a cup of warm sugar water, they will multiply producing alcohol and carbon dioxide. They will multiply until there is no more sugar or until they are killed by the alcohol they produced. What have we in common with yeast? Our resources are finite and as we consume them we produce products that can lead to our own demise. 

Populations on the rise.

The world's population now exceeds  6.5 billion and continues to grow at a rate of over 70 million a year (visit the world pop clock). Our Canadian population is around 32 million with a growth rate of 0.9%. As of July 2005, Canada's population is estimated to be growing by one person every one minute and 46 seconds (see Canada's pop clock). 

Although fertility rates are relatively low in Canada, fluctuating around 1.5 children per woman, the population in Canada will continue to increase over the next 20 to 30 years, (Census -shifts in population). Presently,  there are 100,000 more births than deaths, and 200,000 more immigrants than emigrants.  (Stats Can 2004-5 Population characteristics).  With shifts in demographics (an aging population), deaths will begin to equal births and it is projected that, after 2025, Canada's population growth will be based on immigration.

The population of Ontario is projected to grow by 32.6%, from an estimated 12.39 million on July 1, 2004 to 16.43 million on July 1, 2031. Within the GTA, Toronto's population is forecast to increase from 2.6 million in 2004 to 3.1 million in 2031. Growth in the other regions of the GTA (Durham, Halton, Peel and York) will add about 2 million people to the GTA. Halton, Peel and York are projected to grow by 50 per cent or more over the period. (Ministry of Finance, Feb. 2005, Ontario Population Projections).

"The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is one of North America's fastest-growing economic regions. Covering more than 7,000 square kilometers, the GTA consists of 25 municipalities and four regions with a total population of 5 million. With a work force of approximately 2.9 million people, more than 100,000 companies, and a gross domestic product of U.S $109 billion, the GTA is Canada's undisputed business and manufacturing capital." (GTA Community Profile)

Although population growth is associated with economic growth, it's also associated with urban sprawl, pollution and gridlock. Finding a balance between population growth and protection of our natural environment  is  part of Canada's effort toward sustainable development (2001, Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, Sustainable Development Strategy 2001-2003  & Sustainable Development Strategy III ). However, that balance is elusive. Partly because, sustainable development is based on the notion that it is desirable to obtain an equitable distribution of world resources. Edward Wilson noted  "the average amount of productive land and shallow sea appropriated by each person in bits and pieces from around the world for food, water, housing, energy, transportation, commerce, and waste absorption--is about one hectare (2.5 acres) in developing nations but about 9.6 hectares (24 acres) in the U.S. ... For every person in the world to reach present U.S. levels of consumption with existing technology would require four more planet Earths," (From The Bottleneck by Edward Wilson).  Although it may be argued noble, few North American's desire to relinquish their quality of life to achieve equity with less fortunate members of the world community. If we accept that our natural resources are finite, then growth is not sustainable.  Unlike a perpetual motion machine, perpetual growth requires perpetual input of resources. A growing population results in an increased need for food, infrastructure and services. Therefore, Canada should aim for a stable, sustainable population, not a growing one.

"It is not clear where the optimum [population] may lie and it probably changes over time. One might argue that Canada has profited from reasonably high population growth in the past, but it is not clear that this would apply to the future. Environmental arguments in particular would favour smaller populations. (Roderic Beaujot, 1998, Immigration and Canadian Demographics: State of the Research)." Canada has been working to prevent a decline in its labor force by maintaining immigration rates at around 200,000. With an aging population, this immigration rate mitigates some of the loss of our working population. However, the current rate will result in continuing environmental degradation, particularly in the GTA. It is not unreasonable to say no to growth that will have negative impacts on existing communities. If the quality of air, land and water will decline as a result of new growth, then that growth should be directed elsewhere. Finding a balance is not easy, but short term economic benefits must not outweigh long-term environmental losses - our children's lives depend on our foresight.

Population and the Environment 

National Wildlife Federation

Global Population and the Environment

Sierra Club Healthy Families for a Healthy Environment. 

Population Connection

Population Connection (formerly Zero Population Growth) has been educating young people with it's award-winning Population Education program and advocating for progressive action to stabilize world population at a level that can be sustained by Earth's resources.

Trends in Canadian and American Fertility (The Daily, Wednesday, July 3, 2002)

Canada's total fertility rate has been declining, but the American rate has been rising. In 1999, Canadian fertility hit a record low of 1.52 children per woman, compared with the American rate of 2.08, a difference of more than half a child per woman. Only 20 years ago, this gap was less than one-third of that size.

Doubling Time and Population Growth

"Given Canada's overall growth of 1% in the year 2000, we divide 70 by 1 (from the 1%) and yield a value of 70 years. Thus, in 2070, if the current rate of growth remains constant, Canada's population will double from its current 31 million to 62 million. However, if we look at the U.S. Census Bureau's International Data Base Summary Demographic Data for Canada, we see that Canada's overall growth rate is expected to decline to 0.6% by 2025. With a growth rate of 0.6% in 2025, Canada's population would take about 117 years to double (70 / 0.6 = 116.666)." (About: Geography).

Immigration and Canadian Demographics

Roderic Beaujot, May 26, 1998, for Citizenship and Immigration Canada, 

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